Re: The whole \"opponent needs to fold x% of the time...\"
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Doesn't that math (wrongly) rely on the fact that you have 0 equity if you dont bet? The answer is surely it depends?
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EV of checking is $0 since we never win. EV of betting $100 if villain folds 34% of the time is $0. So if we think villain will fold 50% of the time, betting is clearly superior because our EV will be positive, which is greater than 0. But if we think villain will only fold 10% of the time, betting is clearly inferior because our EV will be negative, which is less than 0.
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It still depends. He did not state if we have position or not. If we are last to act and our opponent has checked to us, we have greater than 0 equity by checking.
If we don't have position we have greater than 0 equity if our opponent is not always betting with AK.
It turn goes check-check it also depends on how often we get paid of/ how often we can push him off his hand when we miss..
So what is the most +EV move clearly depends on what our opponent does on both turn and river..
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