Re: Chess needs a doubling cube
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I think I am really comparing blitz chess to heads up poker. There is a lot more variance. Would you agree with this?
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Not sure really. I think it might seem like there's more variance in fast games because you get huge samples very quickly. I mean a 400 point elo difference gives the favorite 'only' about a 90% probability of winning. So if both ratings are accurate and you're a 2200, you should be upsetting world class GMs 1/10 games. So you can easily beat multiple GMs every day on ICC or whatever - but for most people it'd take months/years for you to get the same chance / sample size to upset a single GM OTB in a slow game.
And then there's the freaks to consider. Like Nakamura's 1-minute game, or Roman's 5-minute games. They both have wayyyyy less variance than any slow time control champions.
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