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Old 07-08-2007, 01:26 PM
detruncate detruncate is offline
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Default Re: overpair, drawy board against a good player

His range is pretty narrowly defined on the flop. It's possible he'd overlimp with 33, not impossible he'd do it with 55/66, and there are some medium suited connectors and such that fit (which might bring 65 into play). Maybe some smaller suited aces I guess if he's feeling limpy.

Combos-wise he's probably on a big draw. His flop cap is slightly disconcerting, though, in that he has to think that we're showing down close to 100% of the time here after we 3-bet. It's possible we have 2 overs with a diamond draw I guess, but he'd be committed to firing at 2 more streets to fold us and we might look him up anyway in a bigish pot when draws seem to make up such a large % of his range. The upshot is that he seems to think it's a value play with so little apparent fold equity, so we're either dodging a lot of outs or drawing thin. Awesome.

With the benefit of time to think, and in light of your read, I'm tempted to fold if a diamond drops somewhere. Is that ridiculous?
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