Re: overpair, drawy board against a good player
He prolly shouldnt expect Hero to fold a lot. So checking behind might be fine. But with 15 cards to imrove to the best hand in a 8.5BB pot he dosent need to get a fold much more than 8-10% of the time for a bet to be good.
But as said. With the preflop + flop action he shouldnt expect to get a fold on that board. But then I like just calling the flop 3-bet and avoid having hero leading out the turn. This way he will also get to raise the turn much more often as hero after all is more likely to bet the turn if villain just called the flop 3-bet than if villain capped the flop.
In general I dont like raising for a free card HU. The value of taking the free card is most often worth less than the value of semibluffing.
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