[trixtrix]

i'm on wlad by dec +500, this is an extension of the boxing total model i'm currently developing. in my estimation, each additional round either way on the total is worth approx 40-50 cents, depending on how high/low the perceived median total is. at a medium total of 7.5 rounds w/fair price of apprx +110, we can approx estimate going full 12 rounds at a fair price of +315, this seems in line w/ 5dimes prop estimate of bout going the whole duration +314/-372.

if the fight does go the distance, being the fight is in germany, there is at least 95% chance that wlad will get the dec being the he's home fav, a more technical boxer, and germany's constant hometown bias. so that implies that the fair price of wlad by dec is +437ish.

however external factors make this bet even more attractive. brewster have ton of heart and will not quit. klitschko will likely come out cautious instead of his typical aggression.

finally neither brewster nor wlad is a finisher in the later rounds. all 3 of brewster losses were by dec, he has only 1 out of 29 stoppages inside to occur at rounds 9 or later. in addition to wlad finishing inside the distance at 9 or later rounds 1 out of 43 tkos. this suggests an inverted convex plateau endings vs. total rounds curve. in other words, each of the early rounds should be weighted more heavily than the later rounds, which means the late rounds is probably worth less than the 45 cents assigned to it originally..

ps: i know i know, today's ufc fight night and i'm discussing boxing... fwiw i wrote a long diatribe explaining my positions but lost the whole thing when firefox crashed on me. didn't feel like rewriting it, besides there's plenty of good long discussions on the subject already.. for anyone who cares, i'm on rashad +120 LARGE, silva -125 MEDIUM, hermes +250 SMALL (yes those prices are real)