[Buzz]

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I just dont see a way that aggression doesnt serve you well most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]1MoreFish4U - I agree.

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I absolutely am a proponent of mixing up your style so that your opponents have a tougher time figuring out what you are doing. That being said, more good things happen when you lead the action.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree.

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I am not a mathematical player. I think the simulations show you want to get it HU most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]You lose more often three handed than heads-up. But if your opponents stick it out to the showdown, you collect twice as much when you win and you also collect half of what one opponent contributes when you split (instead of just getting your own money back).

Sometimes, for example as with AJ85n, you end up with a more positive total when you add it all up for heads-up play against random hands.

Here are the numbers for AJ85n
heads-up:
scoop 38%, split 35%, lose 27%
38*1+35*0-27*1 = +11

three-handed:
scoop 20%, split 32%, lose 48%
20*2+32*.5-48*1 = +8

Thus AJ85-rainbow should do better heads-up (against a blind, for example, which is a more or less random hand) than against three or more opponents. (It just gets worse for AJ85n as more opponents are added).

At any rate, with AJ85n, the total is more positive as there are fewer and fewer opponents (making the hand a "pushing" hand).

But the opposite is true of Nina's starting hand. Turns out the hand is more of a "pulling" hand.

There's a lot more involved. For example, if someone has a deuce-trey-Y-Z hand that they'd play without the raise but not play with the raise, then you substantially improve your chance of winning for low by raising. And heads-up the hand has high cards that tend to make higher two pairs than an opponent with random cards. As you add more players, two pairs tends to win less often.

You do win more often when you play against fewer opponents, but each win is worth less, because fewer opponents are paying you off. (In other words the pots are generally smaller when playing heads-up than with more opponents).

It's always a balance between these two factors (and also how much you lose when you lose).

I don't think the pre-flop raise is terrible, and it has merit against some opponents. I might or might not raise with the hand. It would depend on the situation, and that would depend on the history leading up to this hand and what I expected in the future. (I realize that's vague).

At any rate, I would not prefer to play Nina's particular cards heads-up. But the hand does do fine heads-up (just not quite as well as with more opponents who presumably will fatten the pot for the times when Hero wins).

But if she does raise before the pot and gets heads-up, then I think she has to make a sort of continuation raise after this (rather horrid) flop.

Buzz