[Hyperrrprank]

The other thing that you're not taking into account are those hands where you won't hit your flush, but the possession of even a small pair with the nut flush DRAW will allow you to bet strongly and win pots without a showdown. Anytime you hit any kind of hand with Ax, you'll be drawing to a TON of outs. With A2s for instance, if the board comes 2 6 8 with two of your suit, you've got 2 outs to trips, 3 to Aces up, and 9 to the flush. You can easily bet and raise with this, depending on the number of players and your position, and should take down enough pots without hitting the flush to add a great deal of value to these hands.

Even the backdoor nut flush draw adds significant value to otherwise marginal hands, especially in small stakes games where there are frequently enough players in to pay off the correct odds when you're drawing behind.