[Sherman]

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Do I want to invest 18560 for a chance to win a pot of 22160x2+600+600+150 = 45670? I do if have a better than 18560/45670 = 40.6% chance to win. If he's never pushing worse than TT+,AK, you can just fold but I don't believe that, I'm going to assign a larger range than that to an unknown in the 10R and shove my cheeps in.

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He's not an unknown...he's a TAG. You gotta trust your reads. Even still I'd shove because I think TT+, AK gives you enough odds with the overlay. 18k from this point to win 28k. And hey who knows, he may even fold to your shove because his tourney life is on the line and people do things like that.

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This is possible. Okay, I'll stove it. Someone else do the rest of the maths. Assume hero shoves and BB always calls:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.392% 27.16% 13.23% 184165620 89723532.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 59.608% 46.38% 13.23% 314459700 89723532.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }


With AQ included (although I still don't think it is likely):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.175% 38.86% 10.32% 359277240 95413566.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 50.825% 40.51% 10.32% 374539788 95413566.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


Finally, the range I think BB actually has:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 78295380 89232168.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 174740892 89232168.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }