Re: Chasing the Nuts with the Nuts (PLO8 $200
Wow, I miss Ribbo.
This is complicated a lot because of the fact that your low can be counterfitted. But putting that aside, this would CLEARLY bea situation where you want to get the money in on the flop.
A few things to consider, 1) Unless you are 100% sure your opponent has A4 and a piece of the flop, you have some fold equity. 2) You can reasonably expect that you have as many as 13 outs (x2) and that the three of the 5's are neutral, so you can take them out of the deck. To my way of thinking there are 42 cards that will decide the high, and your opponent needs to avoid 13 of these cards TWICE. So, in most situations you are WELL ahead, (like 62/38).
Even allowing for some really problematic holdings by your opponent, such as A477, A224 or A334, or A45b (where b is a card on the board), the flush outs are still good so you could never be far behind, and obviously this is the minority of holdings for Villian.
This does not even take into account your pot equity, or how -EV it is to play weak/tight.
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