[Bonesy]

I really like your analysis on this hand. A couple of things though would lead me not to make this play.

1) Sets are also in his range here of course.

2) Villain's bet size appears to be a value bet.

3) You are assuming that your almost time-out has invited a semibluff which is possible. But does this villain make a bet like this with a draw? Some villains will of course and some happily take the free card and go all in on a missed river.

It's a very tricky spot and I agree with your analysis of your options none of which are very appealing. I'm on the nitty side, so it may be c/f for me, but your line may be best versus this villain.