[DcifrThs]

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I should clear up a few things:

1)When I say short the pound, I mean short GBP/USD
2)When I say short, I am basing it on the spot price as it stands now
3)As for those other things, I really don't have any prediction or opinion on the interest rates or any globalmacro indicators. It all comes down to that Samurai analogy that I gave you a while back. Right now, that Samurai, is about to take a fall (once it goes through 1.095, then I know he's falling and not faking me out). Once it goes through, then I'll assess the next stop and where I'd like to take my profits. My concern is the next few days only. I'm in I'm out, I move on. Granted, yes the OP was asking about September futures, and I am here trading on spot prices. Regardless, my analysis still stands and 100 pip move will make a short futures purchase profitable.

THE HUN.

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so you think the pound is going to strengthen a further 4% or so and then tank? other wise you think the market is bluffing you? headfaking w/ a false start and that going short now will cost you that 4%?

if you don't want to lose ground and you feel strongly about 2.095 support level, then i think the risk reward is favoring a short right now given your statements. you stand to lose 4% if it breaks up to the support level at which point you would short anyways.

so you can short right now and get the position on.

why risk a path dependent outcome when you can get in at least in a small way right now, say 10-20%. if it pushes up, average further into the position. or start even smaller, but get something in now given your thoughts.

Barron