[DesertCat]

I believe the long term deals are often done by GM's with little job security. Essentially, the GM doesn't care if it's going to be a bad deal for the last 5 years of the 7 year deal, as long as the first couple years are great and help him keep his job. It's a perverse incentive that exists in the GM job. And I think those two contracts are great examples of it.

In the case of the Giants, Sabean needed Zito so he had to go out that long to get him. But the gamble has so far failed and rumour is Sabean is going to be out the door (to the Yankees as Cash's replacement?) shortly.

In the case of Soriano, Hendry made a savvy play that looks like it might work. Soriano has hit well, and the Cubs have been a little unlucky. With a little luck in the 2nd half they make a nice charge and make the playoffs, perhaps saving Hendry's job. Notice that Hendry could have instead spent that money locking up his most valuable player, Zambrano, for the long run, but that would have been a waste of money if he gets fired this year (since he already has Z for this year), only his successor would benefit.

While there are certainly enough GMs desperate enough for job security to give a long term deal to Santana, I find it hard to believe a GM can sell his owner on going to 8/$200M. Even the dumbest ownership has to gulp at taking that much risk on a pitcher. But I wouldn't be surprised if he blows past Zito to something like 7/150 or 8/165.