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Old 07-05-2007, 05:30 PM
WuTank WuTank is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Cologne
Posts: 499
Default Re: $16 turbo is this totally standard, or totally terrible?

first of all it would be nice if you stop beeing so aggro kyro.Seriously thats so misplaced here.I really wanna have a constructive discussion here.Let me recap the situation:
The UTG player limped very much before and check/folded flop previously or folded to a raise.
Let assume he calls the shove in 10% of all cases , which is absoloutly optimistic,since i he limped with so many medicore before that I even think 5% is more realstic,but lets do it with 10%?
The Co is short yes, but he did fold before.So we can at least assume that there is some FE, in my thinking like 15% he is folding , or 85% he is calling.
The BB is with CL he is calling even tighter than UTG since he has a complete random hand here.If we assume he calls with 10%, thats a pretty wide range too.
So all in all the chances that all fold here are :
90% * 15% * 90%= 12,15% all in all FE, which is absoloute realistic here.
Now to our Equity.
I think we are most likely up here against CO.His range is so fricking wide.I think that 25% is on the tight end of his scale,since he can show up here with 87s or sth.
against a range of 25% our 95s has 34% Equity.
Since I assume there are 500 dead in the pot, we pay 900 to play for 1500, so we need like 37,5% Equity here, and the 3,5% diffrence we get from the FE.
Also i think that the $EV of this play is even bigger,since we eleminate 1 player,and get a not too big stack.

Please comment on this.
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