Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
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I've played around a bit, but on most sensible ranges its +EV to shove 90%. I think the shorty could be calling a bit wider than I think though so we shouldn't be pushing ATC. I'm not sure exactly how wide the big is calling either. I doubt he is trying to conserve the bubble since he knows I am shoving very wide right here. I think about 60% is right. So we probably should be folding the initial spot and taking this one.
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Sorry to repeat myself, but there are three non-ICM factors that favour a call:
1. He has an interest in preserving Shortie (within reason) because it keeps the medium stacks tight and handing over their blinds. He should also have a high aversion to doubling Shortie up because then all three opponents will have to open up a bit.
2. You are directly to the right of big stack, so you will likely only get to open push as UTG each orbit. Shortie can open push both his button and his small blind. We're not a favourite to win a last longer comp.
3. If we double up, we pwn the bubble.
I think you have to play this one forward a lot more than the first UTG hand you get.
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