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Old 07-03-2007, 07:25 PM
andrew484 andrew484 is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 53
Default Re: If this wasn\'t in the blinds, I would have folded...should I anywa

You're right that you're charging flush draws more with this play, which is indeed more +EV than just calling if you view it as its own discrete event (for simplicity I'll just assume the villain won't ever bluff shove the river when he misses the flush). But the flush draw makes up only a portion of the opponent's range. When he calls, his range is squarely ahead of yours, and I expect you to be ahead infrequently. So I think that the fact that you're extracting more from flush draws isn't as important as it might seem, since more often you'll find yourself far behind. I think the important thing is to maximize your expectation over the opponent's entire range, not just maximize it over one of his possible holdings.
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