Re: Apple puts July 21
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I have seen that apple is up 40%+ in the last 60 days. They are on the news all the time with the I-phone coming out. My friends who sell Cell-phones say that the technology they show on the adds will be tough to live up too. What are the chances that when this comes out it is a dissapointment and the stocks drops 10-20% or more. The stock is at 122 should I be looking at 120, 125, or 130 puts or higher or lower if I believe the above to be true. Any thoughts or opinions?
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Look at the delta.
Figure out if you want to be 30% odds, 10% odds, or 50% odds of being right according to today's market vol.
Buy that option. Perhaps do a spread if you think it will fall to 100 but not 80 you could buy 125 sell 85, etc.
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