[Larude]

I love numbers heheheh:

*Raising range villain: 99-AA: 4*12 + 2*6 (you have one A and one K) = 60 ways. AK,AQ,AJs,KQs = 9+12+2*3 = 27 ways. Total 97 ways.

*Merits of shoving:
Assumption: Villain will call with JJ and QQ together half the time, always with KK-AA and never with AK (doestn't wanna call such a big part of his stack for what in essention will be a coinflip or a stand off)

EV: Gain: 73/97*725 = 546, Loss against KK-AA: 0,6*12/97*6350 = 472, Loss against QQ-JJ: 0,12*12/97*6350 = 94, together = 566. So shoving isn't really that EV, even -EV according to my calculations. Ofcourse if he calls less with QQ-JJ you will be fine. All in All picking up the blinds and his relative small to bet to your stack don't weigh out against the chance that you loose your whole stack... (as backupped by the calculations). Moreover someone behind you could still have a good hand.

*Merits of reraising to 1500.

He will call with AA-KK-QQ = 24, 1/2 time JJ = 6, 1/2 time AK = 4 (which he shoves and you will call). Calling with other hands is gross IMHO for most villains. That means 63 times out of 97 you will pick up 725 which grants you 63/97*725 = 471.

You are 30% to hit a A or K on the flop, if this occurs and villain doesn't hit his J or Q (0,88) he will fold otherwise he will bet and you go both allin eventually.

Gain: 18/97(QQ or JJ)*0,88*0,3*2225 = 109
Loose: 18/97*0,12*0,3*6350*0,92 (chance you loose to showdown) = 38

If you don't hit your A or K chance of 70% villain will nearly always bet into you (otherwise he is extremly stupid - gives you a freecard to still hit your A or K - That's also why villain in this case will have AA or KK, the free card matters less). You will fold I hope.

Loose: 0,7*18/97*1725 = 224, Total loss against QQ-JJ: -153.

60% of the time, because sometimes you can get away (figuring out that he isn't scared of the A or K and so must have AA or KK himself)

Loose A or K falls you can't get away: 0,2 (chance A or K hits is reduced because he has one)*0,6*12/97*6350*0,82 = 78
Loose A or K falls you can get away and loose Cbet of 1500:
0,2*0,4*12/97*3225 = 32
Loose because no A or K falls and you fold: 0,8*12/97*1725 =
171

Total Loss AA+KK = -281

Total Loss versus all villains cards: -433

All in all raising 1500 gains you about 40 chips. Although I made a lot of assumptions and didn't calculate everything to the bottom I think raising 1500 is better then raising allin . And also better then 2000 while you can still get away from the pot.

But my feeling says in this sort of situations that we will gain also a big deal if villain continues to bet with hands that we dominate like AJ, KQ, or AQ (or hand is disguised). Of course calculating this one would be far to difficult. What i want to claim though is that when a villain raises UTG with a tight range 5% of his stack and we have him covered and we are in position that calling will often be as good as or better then reraising, because with reraising we will fold all hands we dominate and the blinds we pick up are relative to small to his. If his range was wider (so he raises a big deal or from MP3) then reraising is more attractive and also if he was deeper stacked. Shorterstacked would obvious mean all-in!!! I don't say that reraising is wrong but there are also merits to calling in this specific situation and that is no way weak tight.