Re: Are you hitting your sets?
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AA has the lowest set:flop ratio (by quite a bit, too - 14:1 against)
[/ QUOTE ]You might expect this - you're more likely to see a flop when the remaining Aces have been dealt to other players, so you're less likely to flop a set with Aces. Not sure how big this effect is.
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This logic is incorrect. Even if any other A always calls and any other 5 always folds, then there will be the exact same number of dead aces and dead fives when AA or 55 respectively see a flop (in a perfectly normal distribution).
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This may be similar to what Jhill was getting at, but not sure.
Anyway, I don't think this is true. Everyone is as likely to be dealt an A when you have AA as they are likely to have a 5 when you are dealt 55.
However, they are not as likely to see a flop with a 5 as with an A, and seeing a flop is a prerequisite for flopping a set.
It's easier if you think of it as heads-up. Presumably, you are charging more to see a flop (or calling more, if you prefer a smooth call) with AA than if you hold 55. Therefore, your opponent, if he sees a flop with you, is more likely to be holding an A than a 5, and the times we see a flop are the only times we see whether we are flopping a set or not.
This effect will be less pronounces in FR, and I, as the other poster was, am not how much it should effect the results, but it is nevertheless true that Aces should flop a set in a raised pot less than fives.
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