Re: I was told this would make a good playalong
The donk on the Turn really didn't fit. BB's reluctance to continuation bet makes 99-AA less likely. His donk bet makes a hand like a slowplayed AA-KK or AK unlikely as well. Though his checkraise stat has sample size issues, he didn't really strike me as the sort to forgo a checkraise for fear that I might check it through, and I have given no indication of weakness throughout the hand to make him think this was possible.
The true scariness of the Turn donk doesn't come from the BB himself but from the SB left to act. The K fits his Flop Check-Calling range perfectly, and he is the opponent most capable of making this play.
Raising is out of the question. We are not even sure we have the bettor beat, and we are never really gaining anything when an opponent folds. As somebody stated, if we are ahead my 2 opponents are sharing outs, and the benefit of winning against 3 more cards on the river do not outweigh the cost of having put in 2 bets on this Turn, only to fold to a 3-bet from either opponent.
I chose to Call/Fold and make a decision on the River. If I saw the River 3-handed I was most likely giving up to a bet unimproved.
Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, SB folds.
River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9.5BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero???
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