[Michael C.]

[ QUOTE ]
I would argue that based on the information given there is a zero percent chance he competes and a -EV opportunity cost for the poster's time, but we're just arguing minor semantics [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Point i was trying to make - if you didn't notice, Kabosh, Kobayashi has to eat for that bet to play. Maybe you're not wasting your time per Homer, but this isn't the amazing value that you think it is given the "must eat" clause... I'd argue there's such little chance of Kobayashi competing based on this information that it is effectively 0% chance...

-P

[/ QUOTE ]

I really appreciate the contributions Performidy makes to this forum, but I thought at the time that this was just wrong. Given that Kobayashi is Japanese (I live in this country, and there is great social pressure not to quit something if at all possible), that he had never said he wasn't going to compete, and that we're not doctors, there really was little "given information," as to whether he'd appear, and in reality this was very similar to a great baseball bet with a high chance of rain.

Anyway, of course this is obvious in retrospect, but I'm just surprised anyone on 2+2 would say a bet is -EV when the most likely outcomes are a +EV bet or a draw. A lot of times we're only looking for 5% edges at best anyway, and I think this one would certainly qualify. :-) Now watch Kobayashi win. :-)