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Old 06-29-2007, 06:03 PM
mrbaseball mrbaseball is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: shortstacked on the bubble
Posts: 2,622
Default Re: Apple puts July 21

I haven't looked much at apple but I prefer spreads to outright options. If you have a target in mind (say down 10-15%) buy that put calandar. For example the 105 strike. Sell the July or August and buy the October (or possibly August if you sold July). If the stock makes a move to 105 this will work well on 2 counts. The earlier to expire "sold" option will have greater time decay and the longer to expiration "bought" option will benefit from the volatility pop a move like this would almost definitely cause.

Spreads are less expensive and have less risk which means you can do more of them. Even if nothing happens the spread has a chance to make money or break even while just buying puts demands a down move with force to be profitable. However if you do get a down move with force the outright puts are more profitable but it's because they are riskier. A rally is obviously bad for either strategy but the spread probably holds it's value a little better and longer to the upside.
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