[Buzz]

Bart - A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. What a piece of junk!

But O.K. BB flops a straight draw (with the (9-7) and decides to go with it. There are some other remote possibilities as well, like quad sixes and a straight flush. Looks like 1/990 for the quad sixes and 3/990 for the straight flush. That’s less than half of a percent for a miracle hand. 106/100000 and 315/100000 as simulated, for quads and a straight flush, respectively, for BB’s hand. (So the calculation and simulation jibe reasonably well).

Otherwise in the 100,000 turn/river simulation, BB’s hand makes
2,715 back door full houses (2.7%)
4,212 back door flushes (4.2%)
31,194 straights (31.2%)
5,918 trips (5.9%)
40,429 two pairs (40.4%)
15,111 one pair (15.1%)

At any rate, rightly or wrongly, BB continues after the flop and then the turn is the 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. And BB calls the 3rd round bet expecting to make the nuts for half the pot with any five except the 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and expecting to make a non-nut straight with any ten. Make it at best about 37 to 7 against making the winning hand, or more than 5 to 1 against (and that for half the pot).

BB would be getting about 4 to 1 pot odds, 5 to 1 optimistically implied, for the whole pot, but only in the neighborhood of 2 to 1 or so (at best) for half the pot.

Yikes! You don’t need to raise for BB to have horrible odds! BB already has horrible odds!

The thing is, the river could just as well have been
2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. It’s five to one if a club comes on the river, it will be something other than the 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. And then BB has the tough decision on the river.

But that’s the way poker is. Sometimes people defy the odds and win anyhow. And that happens sometimes with slot machines too. Once in a while someone pulls that handle and hits a big jackpot. The casinos get rich anyhow, although once in a while, even when playing with the odds on their side, they take a hit and pay off a big jackpot. And that’s how it is with poker too. You play with the odds on your side and your opponent doesn’t, and once in a while your opponent beats the odds, as BB did here.

If you knew what cards BB held, just calling would be the correct play. If you were clairvoyant and could see what the flop, turn, and river would be and also could see BB’s hand, then you should never have played in the first place.

Tough break, but that’s poker. You don’t always win when you make the correct play.

Buzz