Re: Tournament hand
Further thoughts and results:
I actually just called here. I do think folding is too weak; the odds of someone having 57xx exactly are small (and even then I have redraws). Raising has the advantage that it may (if BB folds her draw) reduce my risk of losing, but it will also increase the risk of ruin if she calls. The other advantage of raising (vs calling) is that while *I* have some chance of making an expensive mistake on the river, BB probably has none if I just call (or at least none that will put chips in my stack, which is all I care about). If her high draw doesn't make it and I bet her out of the main pot, I still get just half; if she calls, her (presumed) marginal low will still allow her to get half the sidepot from me. I, on the other hand, can easily make a mistake for 10K chips (or more if we include an incorrect fold). Not *too* likely against this particular opponent, but even a 10% chance of error on the river changes our EV picture significantly.
Bottom line: I played this based on my habits playing top set, HU, against one opponent in a cash game. But in hindsight I think I should have raised the turn.
Results:
Hero calls, BB calls (pot is now 55,000).
River: [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
Yeah! I made my flush!
BB bets 10800 (hey, I guess she made her straight, too!), Hero calls 9924 and is all-in.
CO shows [Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] for the second nut low and a straight Three to Seven.
Like Omaha8s, I expected the nut low, but have to give the guy credit for his read of the situation - he seems to have realized that no one else had the nut low, and bet his second nut low accordingly.
BB shows [6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] for a weak low and the straight flush.
Hero is disappointed! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
So obviously I second-guessed my play after getting bounced out here. And I realized that if all chips were equally valued and I could always play the river correctly, having BB in the hand is slightly positive. I gave her credit for seven high outs (heart flush) and she actually had a different set of seven outs, so my expectation if she folds is half of 44700 discounted for CO's freeroll. A little under 21000. If she calls, my EV would be about 21500 if she actually had the flush draw; 23000 or so in the actual event, since she and CO are sharing three of their freeroll outs. But of course in reality this slight advantage in chip expectation is outweighed by the error equity (if you want to call it that) that BB has on the river.
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