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Old 06-28-2007, 11:11 AM
JammyDodga JammyDodga is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 610
Default Re: Tough Decision with marginal Two Pair

Thanks for the advice guys. I am thinking that I should have been more wary on this hand. Firstly, I wasn't that pot committed before I raised on the turn, although after that I defenitely am committed.

OK, so theres 4 options for his hand,

1 - he has nothing,
2 - he has a draw,
3 - he has a hand that I beat (A/K rag) that he thinks is probably good
4 - he has a really good hand and he knows it.

I can make some assumptions about this based on his play.

a) He flat calls from the button, why not raise and have a chance to steal the pot right there? Suggests that he either has some kind of drawing hand, perhaps a suited connector, or maybe a low pair, OR he has a monster. Makes it unlikely he has something like A/K rag, as he'd probably raise with that

b) flop is pretty scary with plenty of draws, and is checked around to him in last position, if he had either a draw, or a single A or a K he is likely to bet, either to steal the pot, or make anyone drawing pay for the priviledge, but instead he checks and gives us a free card.

c) My bet on the turn was fairly solid, and for most of my stack, so he knows I'm commited. When he goes all in he wants a call.

Out of his four options, only A/K rag would want a call and be losing to my two pair, and it would be very unlikely that he didn't raise the Pre-flop or on the flop.
Therefore I think its pretty clear i'm behind.

On the one hand, I don't want to be looking for monsters under the bed in every hand, but on the other I want to avoid a formulaic approach - i.e. i have a decent hand and a small stack, therefore my chips are going in without thinking.
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