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Old 06-28-2007, 10:52 AM
Jouster777 Jouster777 is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2005
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Default Re: 25NL 98s Flopped Straight on Monotone Board

Villain was BB so his range prior to the flop action is ATC. We just have to ask what hands does villain play like this from ATC? Since he gets to the flop with all suited heart hands as possible I think its a big part of his range. If you stove this you can include (best case) or exclude (worse case) all the semibluff hands.
Worst case equity = 30%
Best case equity = stove crashed before I finished but semibluffs are all combo draws so we are always way less than 50% equity

As someone said above...he let you know you are toast, fold.

Edit: not really ATC as TT+ and AK were excluded

Board: Th Jh Qh
Hand 0: 30.653% 24.68% 05.97% 22727 5495.50 { 9c8c }
Hand 1: 69.347% 63.38% 05.97% 58352 5495.50 { Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ac2c, Ah2h, K9s, Kd8d, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QTs+, JTs, 98s, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h3h, 92s, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 8h4h, 8h3h, 8h2h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 7h3h, 7h2h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 6h3h, 6h2h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 5h2h, 4h3h, 4h2h, 3h2h, K9o, QTo+, JTo, 98o }
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