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Old 06-28-2007, 09:26 AM
Larude Larude is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 611
Default Re: 2 hands from 10+1$ MTT and 4.5k guarantee

Hand 1: fold, UTG+1 is getting a little under 1:2 so your FE is not so big and chances are big you are behind when called (would expect to see a small or middlepocketpair most of the time).

Hand 2: is very difficult (results may flaw the opinions a bit). You are both pretty deep so I would expect him to reraise AK, KK, AA at his point also to prevent otherones from joining. Most likely he has a pocketpair or AQs, maybe a sc like JTs or 98s. On the flop you have to protect a little against flushdraws but not so much that you loose to much when behind or that he lays down a middlepair. I like about 600. Now the pot is 1760 and he raises 2880. Would he take so much risk with a flushdraw if he knows you could be on an ace and he has so big a stack there is no need for the risky job he would be doing with that.... I mean if you had no ace in your hand raising another 1800 would have done the job or just float and take it on the turn.. With AQ I can't see him raising in this spot, because he is either WB (AK, AJ, JJ) or WA. And if he is WA he is loosing value. Even with AK I would expect him to call in this spot. So I would say you are facing a set (AAA (unlikely), 444, JJJ) here about 65% of the time, 25% of the time a SC (no flush redraws for you except for 4 outs) and about 10% of the time he is playing AQ or AK, very weird... So I lean to folding but as said my analysis could be flawed by the results, I like to hear from others what they think...
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