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Old 06-28-2007, 12:02 AM
CarlosChadha CarlosChadha is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Washington, DC
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Default Re: Is folding here weak / tight?

Its too tight. Yes, it is likely that he just made Aces, but no one else caught anything super scary, so you are likely in a slim 2nd place out of 4 people, so you probably have around 25% equity in the pot. It is unlikely that there will be a raise on 4th, so your immediate odds (assuming all call) are 9-1. Lots of good things can happen on 5th: you can catch one of 6 outs to improve, you can pick up a backdoor diamond draw (worth about 1 out), you could catch another spade-allowing you to get a free card if people fear your possible flush, or the guy with the ace was semi-bluffing w/ his scared card and a str8 draw or a small pair and he'll probably check. If none of those things happens on 5th (or your cards start falling even more dead) then you can fold 5th.

Carlos

FYI-Your pot size is wrong on 4th 4SB+7ante+1BI=$1.45 or about 6 SBs
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