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Old 06-27-2007, 07:02 PM
ReptileHouse ReptileHouse is offline
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Default Re: 25NL 98s Flopped Straight on Monotone Board

The betting pattern makes it a more interesting question, for sure. Strictly based on odds, a flopped flush is massively unlikely. With this betting pattern, however, the odds of it being true in this particular instance go up significantly. How significantly is the question. In order to make to correct decision, we need to quantify things, which is where the above calculations come in. Pokerstove will become your best friend for stuff like this. I can't recommend it strongly enough.

As to villain's range in the stove numbers, I included the majority of what's reasonable, I think. I left out made flushes because we're considering those in the other part of the calculations. Which hands did you have in mind?

An interesting piece of that, by the way, is that if we include more made hands (sets, other two pair, overpairs) into villain's range, your equity improves. If we include more pure draws, your equity also improves. If we include more combo draw type hands, your equity doesn't change much at all. That is, the range given is slightly biased against you.

Since villain's 3bet is pot commiting, I'm not sure how much difference there really is between a 3bet and a push. For some villains, probably quite a bit, for others, none at all. W/o a specific read, I hesitate to put much significance in that.

For myself, if I make a 3bet in villain's situation here, it's a push, as that's not all that much of an overbet. Against a decent player, I'm semi-bluffing with a TON of hands here, precisely because my fold equity is so huge against a massive portion of your range. I'm also pushing most (maybe even all) of my made flushes here because another heart on the turn or river will either counterfeit my hand and/or kill my action. Out of position, it's harder to control when and how money goes into the pot, so I'm much more likely to fastplay everything. I mix up my play by fastplaying my big draws as well as my made hands. The result is exactly the situation you're in here. You have a very, very strong hand, but still are in a really crappy spot. This is why fastplaying big draws is so amazingly effective against thinking opponents. Now will this guy do that? Good question.

In the end for this specific hand, I suspect that he actually has a flush pretty close to 25-35% of the time and you can fold or call and it's pretty marginal either way, so it doesn't much matter what you do in the long run. Flip a coin and go with it, or just trust your gut and do whichever.

The more important thing to look for here is how to analyze situations like this and quantify things. The more you can put dollar values on decisions, the more effective you'll be at exploiting small edges.
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