Re: 100NL thinnish river shove
To be completely honest, I believe you played this hand poorly. IMHO here is why:
Pre-flop: You don't know how your opponent plays, and he doesn't know how you play. It's unlikely he is making a move on your pre-flop raise without any information unless he is really LAGgy, but we don't know that.
Even against a good player your hand is behind with bad drawing abilities to the best hand.
We also have no idea how he plays post-flop, so we can't expect to know when we can bluff him which we will have to do to make this +EV. Therefore I fold.
Flop: OK, you're here now and he makes a weakish bet. You're WA/WB. I think you played this well by calling.
Turn: I really feel you are still WA/WB here. It is possible he just cbet the flop with AK and will fold, but he could easily be preparing for a check-raise with a strong hand. We really don't know so we should be trying to get to see the river for free here.
River: I think you hand is behind here. The reason I think this is because the hands that you beat probably would have folded the turn (except for a slight few like As Tx, possibly JJ, rarely QJ or KQ). Given those hands don't make a large portion of his range on the river, and even smaller part of his calling range I would consider checking.
But what about bluffing? It is an interesting situation. Without a read as to what he does with AA, KK, AQ, KQ, QJ, JJ on this street, or streets prior, I don't believe we can bluff here.
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