Re: Can I win $30/hour playing 25NL?
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What is your STD DEV for your sample size?
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Right, I'm going to run some checks on my hand history tonight and see.
Honestly, not everyone's sitting there with PT, HUD and number coming out of their ears when they play poker.
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I understand that. But you claimed to be the math guy and yet you are making claims (granted "conservative") on the validity of win rates given a small sample size without having done the math to determine how large a sample size you actually needed. This is not how math is done.
Since you are new to poker why don;t you start by asking some established posters what kind of a STD DEV they observe and then calculate how many hands you need to be within your chosen confidence interval on your win rate?
As a base line, assuming a STDDEV of 40ptBB/100 hands you need something like 614,000 hands to be 95% confident your true winrate is with in 1ptBB/100 of the observed winrate.
So honestly, 2,000 hands tells you absolutely nothing.
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