[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: It seems like you really want to see a showdown vs. a guy who has been unpredicable, is stuck, and will raise weak holdings. I don't like the raise, but if I raise and he re-pops, I would still see a showdown - you don't have to catch him going off the deep end very often to make this worthwhile (8 BB going to the river, then your raising adventure w/ george means you only need to be good about 1-14, correct?).
I still don't see the value in raising - I'd like to here your thought behind it.

[/ QUOTE ]

At the time I guess I didn't see him as being quite as loose as he was after I'd played the 100/200 session with him and heavily discounted 65 because of preflop and JT because he called two cold on the flop. But even with a heavy discount the hand combos probably do not work out right often enough for me to raise, especially since it looks like the SB holds some of the cards that I want George to hold.

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2: Raising the river seems to have just as much equity as calling. Your turn check means he would lead out here with 2 pair/set/TPTK (maybe)/flush/bluff
If he has a flush, obviously you lose another bet - if he was bluffing or had a weak hand then he wont call another bet anyways.
But he would probably pay you off with pair/set (possible given that the board is high cards). Eh, seems about even EV to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

He can also have my hand (KT) a lot. I dunno, I figure his range looks something like:

5% flush
20% KT (chop)
5% smaller straight (T8)
25% two pair (or set)
30% one pair
15% hand that's essentially a bluff (T9)

Arbitrarily I'd guess that he calls with all two pair+ and maybe the very best of his one-pair hands, like KQ or something, say 5% of the 30% of his one pair hands. If that's the case then my equity on the raise if the pot were heads up is +.25 BB (skipping some math there). So that's how much equity I need to collect from the overcall to make the softplay correct. And I think I might very well collect that much equity, because SB's range consists of a *lot* of weak one-pair hands *and* he'll pay off with them, but his range of hands that are strong enough to call two bets cold on the river but *not* bet the river after the turn gets checked through is very small. I mean, I think his typical hand here is like J6s or T9o.