[A_C_Slater]

"It shouldn't be, at 50nl you will find quite a few villians willing to play for stacks with tptk type hands. And you lose a lot of value checking the flop, as well as giving hands that would have called a bet a free chance to catch up."

So we want to play for stacks since unknowns will stack off with top pair? If that's the case then why fold to the turn lead? He has at most 5 outs to catch up.



"Aces and other big pairs do best on the flop, every street you give free to an opponent gives him a chance to suck out on you. If you routinely do this vs mid pairs you give them an extra 5% a street, at no gain to yourself."

No they do better on the turn when your equity is better. You also have to bet less to make it incorrect for draws to call profitably as they will have less implied odds with only 1 street of betting remaing. And I don't see how you can see that there is no gain. Here is an examaple.

Villian limps 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and calls your AA raise.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


Villian checks, you bet, villian folds.


Scenario #2

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


villian checks 55, you check behind


Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


Villian leads. Hero calls.

Which scenario is more likely to occur, the bluff induction scenario or one where he spikes a set on turn?

And if he checks turn than we can bet for value and he will still probably call with 55, but we won't already have a big pot on by the turn with only one pair. This is all dependant on stack size of course. If villian has 40bb then I would just CB flop. He is more likely to call with an UI pocket pair on the turn than on the flop because he knows he only has 1 more street to get to showdown against your AQ or whatever he puts you on by checking the flop.


A unknown will not know you have an overpair/tptk when you check this flop because they are usually obsessed with protecting their hands. You keep referencing a decent player in your opponent description type, but this is an unknown.