Re: 50NL: Draw spikes TP on river, but facing big river bet
[ QUOTE ]
We have absolutely no reason to want to strongarm these hands out of the pot.
[/ QUOTE ]
I think with our holdings this is exactly what we need to do. If you call on the turn you have no idea if your ace is good or even live. You're also not sure if you'll have to call a river bet.
If you bump it to $15 on the turn then those weaker hands fold most likely, and if not... they are going to check the river allowing you to see a cheap showdown. You end up losing less this way.
If he shoves on you, then it's read dependant. With no reads it's a pretty easy laydown.
If your flush makes it on the river, he didn't shove the turn and villain has a nice hand (say K9 except the 9 was a diamond), a set, or even AKo villain will probably lead out not giving you credit for the flush.
Raise him on the river, and depending on his strength he might call you, if not... you still got a lot of value from your flush when your draw makes it. Even if he check/folds the river, you still got decent value.
|