Re: Overpair live
ok I'm gonna bump this one time.
On the flop I'm getting like 8:1 to call his minraise. I think it's safe to assume he has a set here a pretty large percentage of the time due to all the various factors. Normally when I think I'm probably up against a set I'd just throw my hand away because of the reverse implied odds (effective odds for showing down my hand, etc). But the fish in the hand here changes the dynamics a lot, because the fish goes too far with his hands (he's not gonna stack off with middle pair or anything, but getting him off TPGK or better is extremely difficult). So my plan is to call the flop raise and then see how much the guy bets on the turn. If he bets like $500+ then I'm toast and I fold. If he checks then MHIG and I'll bet it when they check to me. His $250 bet was halfway inbetween these two things that I thought might happen.
At this point I'm dealing with two conflicting thoughts: the first is that given my preflop raise and then my flop overcall, I'm basically saying that I have at least a big jack, or an overpair. My opponent does not seem to be braindead and I think he can realize that I have to have some type of a hand here. Not to mention that the fish could very easily have QT or T8 or QJ or maybe Q9 when he calls on the flop. Would he bet the turn at all for any amount without better than a lone jack?
The second thought is that if he has better than a lone jack, then why is he betting so damn small on such a coordinated board vs two opponents? From the hands I've seen from him, we know that he's made a very weak raise when he had a very weak hand, and another time he made a normal-size preflop reraise when he presumably had a better hand.
Calling here and folding to a river push is a safe option obviously, but it's not very elegant. If I'm ahead then my two opponents collectively have quite a handful of outs most of the time, and this is a huge pot at this point. Letting them see one more card costs me a lot of EV. Also, what happens if I face a stupid bet of like $350? Do I have to go ahead and pay it off? So if I'm going to take this line, I'd like to have a better reason for it than simply that it will give me an "easy" river decision and I won't ever go broke.
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