I was doing some review this morning, and came across this bubble hand (6.50 Stars turbo)...
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed)
Hand History Converter Tool from
FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
SB (t5480)
BB (t2635)
Hero (t1280)
Button (t4105)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
At this table a couple raises went uncontested and 3 or 4 hands were folded around since the blinds hit 400. I shoved here, and I don't remember the situation exactly but I'm sure I was thinking the table seemed to tighten up and I didn't want to get into the blinds with only 3BB. SNGWiz gave me an EV of -.48%, using calling ranges of 20,20,and 25 for the BTN, SB, and BB. I'll get to those ranges in a second, but my first question would be, would you take a -EV play like this (let's assume just for a second that the calling ranges are accurate)? I'm figuring I'm even more -EV to get into the blinds with my stack. Wrong?
Now, these calling ranges. Going back through and playing around, I end up with equilibrium calling ranges of 18, 26, and 57 if I'm shoving 27% of the time. I mainly concentrated on balancing myself and the BB and then figured the BTN and SB individually. Is that the correct way to find equilibrium, and if it is, is there a way to set up SNGWiz to be more accurate?
To wrap this up, BB called with 87o, right at the very bottom of his 57% equilibrium range, and of course spiked the 8 to eliminate me. But the point is the button played this right assuming my shoving range would be correct, which it wasn't.