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Old 06-22-2007, 11:19 AM
shuinthehouse shuinthehouse is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 193
Default Re: No fancy name (KK with an Ace on board)

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So if MP alone has you beat 1/4 of the time and CO alone has you beat 1/2 of the time and they each have you beat maybe 1/8th of the time, then you are beat approximately:
6/24 + 12/24 + 3/24 = 21/24th of the time. I think I may be overestimating how often CO alone has you beat, but not by much. So you are winning 3/24th or 1/8th of the time. Getting 8:1 pot odds, you have to be winning 1/9th of the time to make the call. So, you should call but there's not a lot of value here.

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Whether or not both Villains have us beat is irrelevant unless there's a consolation prize for second place.

I never took a statistics class or anything, but if Villain 1 has us beat 1/2 of the time and Villain 2 has us beat 1/4 of the time, then absent any other information we can go with 1/2 as the chances we're beat.

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Both wrong, assuming the the 1/2 and 1/4 numbers are correct the way to look at it is: Vil 1 beats us say 4/8, vil 2 beats us 2/8. But half the time vil 2 beats us, we were already beat by vil 1, so it's only 1/8 incremental times, so 4/8 + 1/8= 5/8 of the time we are beat. That's the intuitive approach, the mathematical formula is (P = probability):

P1 + P2 - (P1*P2) = P total

4/8 + 2/8- (4/8*2/8) = 6/8 - 1/8 = 5/8
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