[Siegmund]

I am surprised to see neither Mark nor I bought a one-way ticket last night.

Up until yesterday I suppose it was because I was continuing to see merit in the "two of skoob, nez, and quad" theory after nez died, and they wanted to keep us around long enough for us to help lynch either skoob or quad. And apparently the emerging belief in quad as a villager was enough to cause him to be viewed as a confirmed.

It does mean that both mark and I have been seriously off track. He reevaluated a lot of people yesterday; I guess today it's my turn to see what I can glean.

Sooo...here's my latest thinking on everyone, in alphabetical order:

clowntable: I haven't seen much in the way of in-depth analysis from him or of him. Possibly deliberately UTR, possibly the victim of a bad time zone. My first long game with him (or at least the first I took any notice of him). The fact he's still alive could mean either that he's a wolf, or that the wolves see him as a non-contributing and therefore harmless villager. Either way he won't get nightkilled.

dmk: been UTUTUTUTR since the first day, and absolutely refuses to put up anything besides one-liners. Completely worthless to the village. If you believe he was peeked, you have to believe he's the cultist. If you don't believe he was peeked, he might be a wolf. Either way, an excellent lynch.

eskimo: first day he wasn't being his usual crazy self. After he caught some heat for being less crazy he put on the crazy act for a day again, and then went back to being reserved. Hardly posted anything at all the last two days. Doesn't bear the remotest resemblence to the two long villager games I saw from him in the past. Metagame says he's acting strange; the actual content of his posts (back when he was making them) got him some villager points.

Jonsan: he's been on a lot of people's "lean villager" lists, including mine, but not anymore. Over the weekend all he posted was "I'm gonna read before I vote" and then a vote without explanation. Yesterday all he posted was a rather glib "I'm voting my day 1 read" and some vague "worries" about other names. (And this despite the fact that everybody's day 1 read on me their first game with me is always wolf.) People cleared him because he helped moved FCBL past Neil on the D2 voting. But let's reread the D3 comments: Neil is convinced Jonsan is a wolf; Herbie on D3 says
[ QUOTE ]
Luckay - clearing Jonsan based on that post is a huge mistake. I'm not really convinced that Jonsan is a wolf but that isn't villagery. If anything I would say that the post you quoted implicates Jonsan pretty heavily if Neil is a villager.

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As we know, Neil turned out to be a villager. So did Herbie. For that matter Herbie got nightkilled not just for being a possible seer peek but also for his work as an active thinking villager.


mark: his posts still look good. But again, why's he still alive? I am hoping/praying it's just because he misread people up until yesterday.

thesmell: currently the cleanest player in the game IMO. Consistently posting thoughtful if short content, and nothing too wolfy in his voting record.

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Summing up:

I believe the one serious misread that I made was jonsan, who, in retrospect, has done something suspicious, or at least not helpful to the village, EVERY time he has been in the thread ever since he cast that vote on FCBL. (A vote which, as I said at the time, looks wolfy on its own for producing a tie vote a few minutes before nightfall... if FCBL hadn't been a wolf there is no way I'd forgive him for that.)

Sooo... my hit list:
jonsan - wolfiest of the wolfy
dmk - cultist or wolf, either way he has to go
clowntable - if dmk is the cultist, I think clown is the remaining wolf
eskimo - if dmk is a wolf, I think eskimo is the cultist (remember that "the other cultist should come out now" speech? If you're village, OK fine - if you're the cultist, nice way to telegraph that to the wolves when nobody else answers.)