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Old 06-20-2007, 01:58 PM
jstill jstill is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: downtown portsmouth
Posts: 3,641
Default Re: Is this river raise -EV?

what hands do u expect him to limp in with a Q utg? theres not that many, QJ 3 QT Q9 are less likely and only 4 each whereas u lose to 4 and chop with 3 he plays this way (and thats only if QT and Q9 off are undiscounted as well as AQ).

if he could call this flop with 66 as well (being the type to always want to see the next card with any PP and their 20:1 longshot) ur slightly behind his range, throw in he could be the type to not raise Jacks becuz "an overcard always flops" and ur now behind 13:8 and offering up odds since JJ maybe AQ and definitely QJ the nuts will put in another raise. If u argue u can always safely fold to a 3bet so ur not offering up odds, I have no counterpoints but its a flawed assumption at least slightly.

I dont put another raise anywhere in this hand. If i had AQ id 3bet the turn and calldown a cap, either way i wouldnt raise fold this river if i just called the turn cr, just incase he 3bets with KQ instead of contemplating folding (which he was never actually going to do btw, no donkey folds trips gk i promise).

even putting in another raise with AQ after the turn cr is close i think, here ur just getting urself in trouble id say unless hes the type to limp a ton of crappy Qs up front and always play them this way (putting in a turn cr even tho u raised this flop after multiple callers as the pfr aka u have trips gk). the latter is probably a fair assumption vs most live donks, theyre just playing their hand.
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