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Old 06-19-2007, 10:45 PM
Howard Treesong Howard Treesong is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Theoretically Indeterminable
Posts: 997
Default Re: Weighty issue I feel powerless to handle (Longest Post Ever OMG)

[ QUOTE ]
To make a poker metaphor out of it (and to be pessimistic/honest), I'd say I'm drawing to about 3 outs on the flop -- I can understand why most people here are recommending I muck it now. But my implied odds here are [censored] huge.

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As with most poker decisions, there are three options here. First is fold, which is to say pack up your tent and go home. That seems tight/weak given your feelings for this gal, and you might put yourself in a state of wistful regret for the rest of your life; and she may well feel the same. Second is to raise and ask her to marry you. The trouble here is that is that she may not say yes or, if she does, she then takes out her residual guilt on you for the next fifty years; of course, there's a chance that you two end up being ecstatic for all of time. The third option is to sort of call, which is to make your situation known to her parents and try to convince them that you're a decent option.

I can't assess the relative probabilities of these or judge your equities, but this is the right analysis paradigm. I would advise you in the future to make better preflop decisions so as to avoid this sort of tough decision. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

In all seriousness, your spot is fraught with peril. I've been reading your posts for a while and think your head is generally screwed on pretty straight. This one, I think, is a gut-level decision that nobody is going to be able to help you with. Best of luck with it -- and please do keep EDF posted, pun intended.