Re: PLO8 SnGs
GoneForever -
I crunched the numbers and the standard deviation (in dollars) on your $1100 profit appears to be about $240. If you apply the 2SD metric suggested in the article, this means that you can be 98% certain that your (true? underlying? sustainable?) ROI is between 24% and 64%.
There are aspects not addressed by the article. In general, if we see someone with a very high ROI, we still want to bias our estimate of the 'true' ROI downward rather than just assign a normal distribution. The higher the ROI, the more our Bayesian priors make us inclined to assign part of the positive variance to luck.
In your case though we already know that you have been extremely successful in tournaments at these levels. I would still estimate your sustainable ROI to be less than 44% (as per the reasoning above) but I wouldn't be surprised if you can keep up something close to that.
Personally I'd advise you to move up.
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