Re: Weak = Correct Here?
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Stellar,
Your analysis is really good but you didn't mention what I consider the most important point and the best justification for my decision.
It's not just about putting him on a range of hands and asking what percent of those we beat. He is reading hands too. My turn checkbehind really looks like a "I have an ace that I am showing down" line. Hence his bet looks like a value bet to me.
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You really haven't given us any information to support that this guy is thinking and your post implies that he is approaching the hand the way you are which may be a mistake. I don't know the right answer here but I still see all kinds of hopeless river bluffs after loose flop peels when I check behind on the turn. I will fold here some but usually use other metagame info to help me when I do.
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