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Old 06-17-2007, 10:54 AM
wallenborn wallenborn is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 478
Default Re: My overpair vs ....?

You changed plans during the hand. Playing JJ for set value only calling a raise that's 13.5% of your stack is a very marginal decision. Yet when you check to him on the flop you do just that. Then you change your mind and play your hand as an overpair, against an overcard on the turn and a three-flush on the river. That's very optimistic.

What do you think he has when he reraises you preflop? You say he's tight, so AK, KK+ will make up a lot of his range. On the flop, you have only Jacks on a Ten-high board, so there are no pocket pairs that he could have that you beat and are overcards to the flop. If you had Kings on a 843 flop, it would be a totally different situation, but here you can exclude all pocket pairs except those that beat you.

The turn then brings a scare card for you and for him if he has 99. Also, there now are two flush draws on the board. In that situation a flat call scares me a lot. He is basically telling you he's not afraid of this board. And when the river completes the club flush, there is not much left you beat. You lose to aces, kings and queens, you lose to AQ/KQ, you lose to A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], in fact to any two clubs. The only hands you beat here are totally misplayed offsuit Ace-Kings. If he was a maniac, you might even see just that, but a half-competent player has you beat here.

Fold preflop.
As played, bet the flop, fold to a raise.
As played, check/fold the turn.
As played, check/fold the river.

And stop changing plans in the middle of a hand, at least until you've become a lot better at it.
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