Re: KK - deep nl10
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"In a 6 handed game, you are dealt KK. You raise and an opponent reraises all-in. What are the chances that your opponent has AA"?
Coming back from the break, they said that the correct answer is 1/44. LOL and u want to fold
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There really needs to be a sticky about the use of probability. Thinking like this is garbage and causes people to lose a lot of money.
Suppose you have QTo (which is above average in terms of all-in equity). Someone shoves, do you say to yourself: lololol I'm above average, so I'll win this more times than I lose.
Or suppose you're playing with 1000BB stacks, and eventually facea 6bet-all-in by a nit. You have KK, do you say lololol, chances of AA is only 1/44, of course I call!
Or suppose you hold KK on a monochrome board of AKJT9, someone's been betting all the way and now shoves river. Do you say lololol two pair is the average winning hand, I'm above average here, I call!
Knowing the odds in a vacuum isn't a free pass to ignore everything else.
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I agree. The statistic in itself seems kind of strange.
1/44 times that someone re-raises you pre-flop it's AA? Doesn't that depend on the villain's 3-betting range, the stakes, history between players, how drunk everyone is? etc.
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