[Performify]

Silva is by no means bad on the ground.

That said, Nate the Great is going to pwn him hard. I released Nate as a public pick quite a while ago (both before the line was released and when the line opened @ quite a bit higher) and its been bet down quite a bit since open.

If you're not familiar with Marquardt, he's a seven time King of Pancrase. Great ground skills. Competed against the likes of Lister in ADCC.

This fight is going to the ground and Nate will control it there. If this were only a three round fight I'd have moved my entire roll on Marq at the open line (or at least as much as possible these days... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ). The five round title fight actually works to Silva's advantage as it gives him quite a bit more opportunity to pull something off from the bottom and gives him five opportunities to start the fight on his feet instead of just three.

If you haven't seen it, before you judge Marquardt find the tape of Marq demolishing Dean Lister at UFC Fight Night 8. Final judges scores: 30-27, 30-25, 30-25.

Before anyone says anything derogitory, obviously the Lister fight is not a direct comparison as Lister obviously is no where near the striker that Silva is, so Marq could approach the fight much differently. But still, watch the fight, watch Marq absolutely demolish a world-class grappler in the Octagon, and you'll get a great introduction to "Nate The Great".

There will reach a point where Marq is no longer valuable. As it is, a ton of value has already been bet out. But I'd still be on Marquardt at the current line, just not nearly as heavy. I'm very heavy on Marq avg'd around +185 for the record, and I think its one of the best bets I've made in my career.