[Skallagrim]

Aha, a whole new group of people to educate (it seems most of you dont view the legislation forum)!

That poker has a skill element is pretty obvious and easy to prove. Most of the arguments advanced above are good ones to show this. Legally, however, the point to be decided is whether poker is more chance or more skill. This is called the "predominance test" and is used in about 2/3rds of the states to determine whether a game is gambling or not. Specifically the question asked: Is/are the outcome(s) of poker more the result of chance or skill?

The following is a logical proof (with one real world fact) that shows most poker outcomes are determined by skill/the actions of the players:

First lets define the terms:

Chance (or luck) = the random distribution of the cards
Outcome = winning the hand, and by how much
Skill = decisions made by players (PLEASE NOTE THAT MOST OF YOU THINK SKILL IS YOUR PERSONALL ABILITY OR "EDGE," YOU ARE RIGHT AS IT RELATES TO YOU, BUT IN THE CONTEXT OF ANALYZING THE GAME NOT THE PLAYERS, SKILL SIMPLY MEANS AN "ACT OF SKILL" NOT HOW MUCH ACTUAL SKILL YOU PUT INTO THE ACT - for example, a golf swing is an act of skill whether its done by a complete novice or by Tiger Woods and so even if three total novices are playing, golf is still a game of skill).

Second, lets look at something obvious: some poker hands are won by skill (you induce everyone else to fold by a bluff) and some poker hands are won by luck (you get all in with aces before the flop against a single player who sucks out with 5-6 offsuit). So to answer the predominance question it will be necessary to look at a representative number of hands and see which is determining the winner more often, skill or chance.

The first thing we look for then, are hands that are clearly skill results. And since it is logically impossible for cards to determine the outcome of a hand if they are not shown or seen, every hand that does not go to showdown is undeniably the result of player actions, not the random cards (there is no rule that says you HAVE to fold 2-7 or call/raise with A-A).

In most forms of poker this is the way most hands are resolved (all but one person folds before all the cards are revealed). Studies of hundreds of thousands of online hands consistently show that approximately 60-65% of all Holdem, Omaha, and 7-stud hands end before the final card is shown. THAT MEANS AT LEAST 60-65% OF HANDS IN THESE GAMES ARE THE RESULT OF PLAYER ACTIONS (SKILL) NOT THE CARDS.

I could end there, but there is more.

When hands do go to showdown, who is at the showdown is also determined by player decisions (to call, fold or raise), not the cards. And quite often the person who would have had the best hand has folded long before all the cards are shown.

At the showdown the more skilled player will be in the advantage (he who has the best pre-river hand is there usually because his skills tell him he has that hand. So the cards ARE NOT determining who goes into a showdown with the hand most likely to win, it is the skill (or lack thereof) of the players.

At the showdown, the underdog only wins less than half the time because, of course, thats why he is the underdog!

And finally, the amount of the win (especially significant in tournament poker) has been determined completely by the players (though structured by the betting rules), not the cards.

So put all that together, and the only time you can really say that chance DETERMINES the outcome in poker is when there is a showdown and the less skilled player gets lucky and hits his or her improbable card. We all know that happens in poker, we also all know that happens far, far less than half the time (otherwise the suckout would not be suckout).

Therefore Poker results are determined far more often by the players than by the cards. And thus Poker is a game of Skill. This is even more apparent when you factor in that poker is really a game of winning chips, not hands. Since the amount of win or loss on any hand is totally within the players control, that element of poker must also be deemed a skill element.

So 1) all hands not shown down are skill outcomes(60%)
2) of hands shown down at least 51% were won by skill, and
3) Most of the amount of the win was also the result of skill.

THUS, AT LEAST 81% OF POKER “OUTCOMES” MUST BE SKILL, EVEN MORE IF THE AMOUNT OF WIN OR LOSS IS FACTORED INTO THE EQUATION (although I have yet to figure a way to quantify that).

Should be the end of the debate, IMHO.

Skallagrim