[Josh.]

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The mistake he'd be making with his lesser hands if we bet would be folding them. It also puts us in a much better spot to get paid off for the last half of his stack if we hit. Also knocking AK out is much better than keeping it in. Assuming we get stacked for sure on the 3 non spade jacks, and we stack him on the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I think he might fold sometimes if just the A or K come and he'll also have a higher spade redraw some of the time. If any of the other 4 aces or kings come we might cost ourselves a decent sized pot.

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can you clarify the first sentence? or maybe just an example. not sure which hands you're referring to

i don't see how he can get away from AK on an A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn. i suspect he'd bet and then have to call the shove. he can't put us on any type of hand after checking the flop. and if one of his 4 As or Ks come on the turn, yeah we have to call a bet, but we still have 9 spades and 2 8's to stack him. so that's nearly a wash. 3/4 of the time we lose one bet, 1/4 of the time we gain two bets. 2 pair also beats him, though we likely have no implied odds on that. but at least we gain one bet rather than losing one. so i think AK is very, very close