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Old 06-14-2007, 12:26 PM
jstill jstill is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: downtown portsmouth
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Default Re: TPTK on scary board - calldown?

its probably pretty close truthfully without doing the math.

if u make his range KJ AQ AT A7 77 TT maybe AJ with the Js or AK with the Ks, then some range of flushes he cold calls 98 J9 JT KT ect, u probably have too much equity against his range to fold the turn and once u get to the river the calls probably slightly minus ev, but dont sweat it too much getting 10:1.

One thing ive been struggling with to reconcile is how our negative implied odds on the river should influence our decision on the turn. The ev of the whole line is tainted by this. As an example if a turn call was slightly ev against an opponents range, it seems we should call but with incomplete information if 90% of the time we are paying off as a loser on the river, the negative EV associated with the next street could easily out weight the EV of the turn call. This stuff is hard to figure out tho.

as a more general simplistic rule, dont bother trying to find folds with TPTK particularly in the micros. U often have too many outs and counterfeit outs against his two pair hands to fold on the turn (which will always be alot of their range) and once u get to the river whatever, its a small mistake if even (probably not against unknowns).
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