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Old 06-13-2007, 11:15 AM
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Default Re: weird preflop spot with short stack, 2500 NL

Of course we're getting a caller. Of course we're behind. That's not the point.

I would suggest that you will find shoving here substantially +EV assuming HJ will reshove with, at the loosest 88+, AQ+ and that SB will fold anything short of TT+, AK in that instance and, if HJ folds, will call with his whole CC-ing range. Given that we have an M of 3 after folding, I don't think it's a given that we'll get a more +EV spot before our next BB and this is an opportunity to nearly triple up, if we get one caller, to a stack that is playable.

If we're open shoving optimally because we have FE, you need to factor in the fact that we're winning small pots that leave us in the same zone or getting called when we're behind or not getting action on the our big hands.

In these situations, when faced with a +EV situation this short, you need to consider whether, this short, your likelihood of encountering another +EV situation within a very limited number of hands.

Cliff notes: there are a [censored] of chips in the pot, there's likely to be an overlay - you need a good argument to fold here not simply you have no FE and you're getting called.
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