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Old 06-12-2007, 04:19 PM
Oink Oink is offline
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Default Re: how to vary my play (turn cr) ?

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I would c/r the turn with say KJ in that spot.
Also since it got HU at the turn I would have c/r as a semibluff if the flush had not arrived. The pot is something like 5BB's so with your 9 outs you only need to get a fold i dunno around 10-12% for the play to be +EV.

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Good advices. How do you get that 10-12%, think i need some help with the math.

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You get 5:1 on the bluff. So if he folds right there 1 in 6 or with 16.67% prob the raise is EV neutral if you do not put in anymore bets. However, the time he either folds or 3-bet you have 9-12 outs to improve. Say he just calls and your Q outs are good, then with 12/46 ~ 25% you will hit and make a valuebet on the river, these times you will win an additional 2 BBs from him. Obviously he will sometimes 3-bet and you have to c/f the river UI, these cases will cost you 2 BB's extra compared to just calling the turn.

The exact folding eq that is needed to make a raise +EV depends on how often he will 3 bet a good hand but it has to be less than the 16.67% for the bluff to be immediately profitable.

I hope I made myself understandable.
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