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Old 06-10-2007, 02:25 PM
Guruman Guruman is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: still a NL fish - so lay off!
Posts: 3,704
Default Re: 7k Post: Retooling how you think about sample sizes (tl;dr-too mat

i like preflop, but then i'm a geek. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

1a) You are on the button with ATo and an unknown MP (second to act out of 6 players) raises. Do you 3-bet or fold?

My default is to fold this until getting some semblance of a read. I do try to get reads quickly, but villain’s range is likely to skew somewhere near a dominating range vs my hand and if he has any heart or aggression in him at all I’ll end up folding the best hand some % of the rest of the time, so I just get out of the way until I see him playing fit or fold or raise something dumb pf.

1b) You’re in your 5th orbit on the button. The table has been playing somewhat tight. MP with stats of 20/10 raises and it’s folded to you. You have ATo. Do you 3-bet or fold?

Mp’s been playing tightly and he’s raising it up from an earlyish position. Even so, I could dominate some of his range here, and I can probably trust him postflop so I’ll go ahead and threeball and use position to test him here. A lot of this decision is based on a rough estimate of my ability to find a fold when he pushes back or starts digging his heels in postflop.

1c) You are on the button with ATo. You’ve been multitabling and you haven’t really been noticing MP’s play in particular, but you have noticed the table has been generally tight and aggressive. He raises and it’s folded to you. Your HUD reads 25/20/3 after 60 hands. Do you 3-bet or fold?

I start looking for a new table, but that’s because I’m trying to focus on my “playing good opponents” version of tilt right now, and I need the practice getting up. Given that I’ll just fold so that I can get up.

2a) You are in the SB with A8s. Unknown button open-raises. Do you 3-bet or fold?

This is an auto threebet from me. Typical button stealing ranges are very very wide, and my hand wants to play with initiative and headsup. To fold here we have to put villain on a range of something like A4+ and 44+, which is just far far too narrow to give an unknown.

2b) You are in the small blind with A8s. The game has been quite LAGgy in 50 or so hands that you’ve been here. If anyone is paying attention, you also have a solid image because you’ve been taking down pots mostly uncontested, and the hands you have shown have all been quite strong. Button open-raises. He has been quite active, over-limping quite often and never open-limping. The only hand you remember is the one where he raised 77 UTG.

easy threebet. button won’t have been paying attention, but this means that he’ll likely call down with any piece and I’m a fav against that strat postflop. I can also do thing like induce bluffs and screwplay postflop when I make hands.

2c) You are in the SB with A8s. Everyone folds to the button who raises. You’ve been at the table for 4 orbits, and you can remember that he has open-limped in late position once and open-raised from the button once before, which went uncontested by you and the big blind. Do you 3-bet or fold?

another super easy threebet from me. I can see that you’re looking to shrink button’s range by giving him a pf limping range, but I just don’t think that you can shrink it enough to pull the profitability away from A8. Also, players that limp pf tend to be far too fit-or-foldish postflop in general and will give up when they whiff even after a pfr. The other side is that they’ll tend to showdown any time they connect. Both of these factors add up to a myriad of ridiculous spews based on villain reading his own hands instead of ours, which is lots of incentive to get into the pot with him.

3a) You open raise from MP and get 3-bet by an unknown SB. What is the approximate hand range you will give him? What hands would you cap for value and which ones would you just call?

I’ll generally look for Ax, K9+, QJ+ and most pps out of sb threebets. I think the decision about what to do with the last pf action can be generally style dependant. For instance, in a HU match I’d either be calling here with 100% of my range or capping with 100%, depending on my read of villain’s flop and turn play (aggro flop and turn get calls, tight flop and turn get caps). Also, I think my mp raising range is going to be relatively comparable to sb’s default threebetting range - lots of broadway type hands and pairs. I’ll probably have a few suited connectors in there that he wont, but that’s near the extent of the difference. In the end, the decision comes down to how I’m playing againt the rest of the table, and how long I plan to continue at this table. If I’m getting up soon I’ll go super straightforward and cap 99+, AT+. If not I’ll think about what gear I’m in and go with that.

3b) You open raise from MP and get 3-bet by the small blind. You’ve been at the table for about 30 hands, and have raised 5-6 of them. This is the first time he has 3-bet. You’ve seen this player coldcall raises (not necessarily yours) 3-4 times and he has done a lot of check-calling and check-folding. What is the approximate hand range you will give him? What hands would you cap for value and which ones would you just call?

In my experience witnessing a coldcall narrows an opponents’s raising range much more than witnessing an open limp does. This is because lots of those coldcalls should be clear threebets, and not always clear folds. If villain has been coldcalling from the small blind, then he’s also displaying a lack of recognition of the presence of the big blind, which should further strengthen his range. This is doubly true at micro-stakes where players generally have less heart and more gambool. I’ll cap TT+ and AJ+ there, as I think he could have hands as strong as A8s or A9s in his coldcalling range, as well as some pocket pairs.

3c) You open-raise from MP and get 3-bet by (you guessed it) SB. SB has been a pretty active and aggressive player in the three orbits you’ve been at the table. He has open-raised a couple times, iso-raised a limper once, and this is the second time you’ve seen him 3-bet. What is the approximate hand range you will give him? What hands would you cap for value and which ones would you just call?

If I can recall all of this about sb, then I can also recall how he played those hands postflop. If he was getting thin valuebets in and finding ways to showdown his weaker hands then I’ll label at him as a good lag and start looking for a more comfortable chair. If he’s showing down hopeless hands or spewing bluffs in bad spots postflop then he’s a bad lag and I’ll start eyeballing that chair to his left. This is doubly true if it’s a fish that he’s been isolating pf that’s also sitting to my right.

I’d put his range at any Ace, most kings, maybe Q9+, any two broadways, any pocket pair, and depending on what I’d seen I could throw some suited connectors in there like T9s. I’ll generally call probably 90% of my range and look to raise him out of his seat on the flop and turn. He is the bull and I am the matador, and if I allow him to charge me it is so that I can slaugher him as he passes by.
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